ESTIMATING BANK STAFF LAY-OFF IN NIGERIA USING THE ZERO – INFLATED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION


In this paper, Chi-square test for independence was performed to measure whether an association exists between the level of bank staff and fluctuations (increase or decrease) in bank staff strength in Nigeria. Since Chi-square test does not provide any inferences about causation, the Zero – Inflated Negative Binomial Regression was used to estimate the effect of level of staff on the number of bank staff laid off. Dataset used was obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics database which contains bank staff strength from the third quarter in 2017 till second quarter in 2020. The results obtained from the study revealed that there exists significant association between level of staff and fluctuations in number of bank staff. Furthermore, it was observed that chance of being laid off was highest for the contract staff although other levels of staff also had high risk of being laid off when compared with the executive staff. Suggestions were made on how to soften the effect of bank staff lay-off in Nigeria. Keywords: lay-off, bank staff, chi-square test, zero-inflated negative binomial regression, count data.


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